A Balkan-Based Criminal Syndicate Leverages Intelligence Tradecraft To Steal Luxury Watches & Diamonds In Bond-Style Heists. Luxury jewel crime occurs on a spectrum and Ocean’s Eleven-style heists are generally figments of Hollywood screenwriters’ imaginations. However, one notable example exists: the “Pink Panthers,” a network of Balkan-based jewel thieves that operated with near impunity in the early 2000s, stealing an estimated $500M in diamonds, jewels, and luxury watches. The attacks spanned the globe including traditionally “safe” cities like Tokyo, Dubai, and Geneva. Pink Panthers during a heist at Wafi Mall in Dubai. The heist lasted minutes and the cars were later abandoned and burned to destroy DNA and other clues. The syndicate, reportedly founded by paramilitary veterans of the Yugoslav War, leverages tradecraft and precision that would rival a first-rate intelligence service, with swagger to match.  In 2007, a Pink Panther cell drove two Audi S8s through the glass doors of the Wafi Mall in Dubai, down the marble walkways, and directly to a jewelry store. They disappeared minutes later. After a 2005 heist in St. Tropez, the team boarded an awaiting speedboat for a quick extraction, destination unknown. In 2013, the group even conducted a prison break in Switzerland by ramming the gate with a stolen van and placing ladders over the barbed wire, freeing a Bosnian member of the gang. These highly coordinated heists last only minutes and within hours the perpetrators are in another country.  Many members of the Pink Panthers allegedly served during the Yugoslav War. Today, we explore the structure, creativity, tradecraft, and tactics that made the Pink Panther syndicate the most successful and bold international criminal organization in recent history, a legacy that continues today. What's In A Name? - The Pink Panthers Graff Diamonds in London was one of the Pink Panthers’ first high-profile targets in 2003. (Photo Credit: Graff) The “Pink Panthers” nom de guerre was coined by INTERPOL (The International Criminal Police Organization) after a brazen heist of Graff Diamonds in London in 2003 in which one of the assailants disguised as a VIP client, Milan Jovetic, escaped in an awaiting Ferrari. After his arrest in France, a blue diamond worth over $500 thousand was found in a face cream jar belonging to his girlfriend, a tactic used in a 1960s-era Pink Panther film starring Peter Sellers. You can’t make this stuff up. A luxury Ferrari used for an escape in the 2003 Graff Diamonds heist in London. Gentleman Thieves - Covert Influence The group's intelligence tradecraft extends to the media. The group conducts an effective influence campaign, an effort to develop a Robin Hood-like mystique as “gentleman thieves.” Several members have even given interviews and media appearances. Despite the speed and violence of action, most heists last mere minutes, the group is quick to note that it has only caused one death over the years despite the numerous operations. A self-described founding member of the group, Rajko Causevic, has remarked: “We were never violent. I am a thief, but a gentleman. We always made clear plans.” There are some indications the Balkans-based group bought their safety in Montenegro and Serbia under an implicit agreement they would invest the ill-gotten profits back into the economy, making them heroes at home. Items stolen from the luxury boutique of the Harry Winston in Paris. Watches are one of the many items targeted by the Pink Panthers. Born Out Of The Yugoslav Wars - Paramilitary Training According to most accounts, the group was born out of the Yugoslav Wars, a series of conflicts in the Balkans after the disintegration of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. One known prominent leader, believed by some to be the founder, Dragan Mikić, reportedly had military training and experience. With an estimated 500 to 800 members of varying levels of involvement, many are believed to be ex-Yugoslav soldiers, which explains the military-like precision and sophisticated tactics. Members are recruited to teams for specific operations based on their skill set and profile. Pink Panthers Tradecraft The Pink Panthers boast an impressive array of capabilities that rival any premier intelligence agency, including the Central Intelligence Agency. The group has a deep bench of diverse individuals to recruit from for specific operations, including document forgers, safe crackers, and members with advanced weapons and driving training. Unlike the mafia or a cartel, the structure is decentralized with no clear leader or organizational chart, complicating decades-long efforts by international law enforcement organizations to dismantle the group. Credit: Stratfor 2014 Heist Methodology - The Criminal Planning Cycle: Utilizing a framework developed by Stratfor, the “Criminal Planning Cycle” helps us dissect the tradecraft, methods, and tactics used by the Pink Panthers. $37M in jewels and watches were stolen from Harry Winston in Paris, France in 2007. (Photo Credit: Vanity Fair) Target Selection: Primarily focused on Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, the Pink Panthers chose targets with geographic and venue-type diversity.  A jewelry store in the heart of Mayfair, a museum in Zurich, or a boutique in Tokyo nothing is off the table.  When asked why he robbed banks, American bank robber Willie Sutton dryly remarked, “Because that's where the money is.” This ethos is what drove the Pink Panthers to steal luxury timepieces including Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Patek Philippe. That said, Pink Panthers are loot agnostic, focusing primarily on diamonds and other classic jewelry due to the value-to-weight ratio but also expanding into artwork. In 2008, the Pink Panthers reportedly robbed a Zürich museum, taking several paintings including Monet, Degas, and Vincent van Gogh, with an estimated value of $160M. Surveillance photos captured by law enforcement of Pink Panthers conducting pre-attack surveillance, including of a Rolex Authorized Dealer. (Photo Credit: 60 Minutes) Planning & Surveillance: The Pink Panthers devote significant resources to pre-attack planning and surveillance which can take months. Teams are typically composed of three to five individuals with complementary specialties and backgrounds, and most include at least one woman. With more than adequate funding, the Panthers dress the part, acquire “safe houses”, and steal luxury cars. Women members are often used to case the location, returning with recorded footage and hand-drawn sketches of the layout of the target. Targets are assessed for security but also with escape in mind.  Creativity is encouraged, with escapes using everything from stolen luxury cars to boats to push bikes in Japan. Keenly aware of the investigative capabilities of law enforcement, the group uses cash for expenses and even reportedly false passports and license plates, demonstrating an impressive level of sophistication for the criminal element. The Pink Panthers use a mixture of profiles for both casing and the crime itself. Individuals arrested after Dubai mall heist. Deployment: To gain entry to the target facility, the teams use a mixture of disguise, creativity, and brute force. In May 2003, two members entered the Graff Diamonds store in New Bond Street, London, posing as wealthy customers dressed in suits and wigs to disguise their facial features. The Panthers will often use women and light disguises to make them seem less alarming. The Panthers have also cut through walls of neighboring stores to access the facilities during off hours. On the morning of 6 October 2007, a team of four was already waiting inside the Harry Winston store when the Paris boutique opened. They were disguised as construction workers, who had reportedly been working on the facility for weeks prior to the heist which resulted in $37M in luxury jewels and watches. Carlton Hotel, Cannes France heist, July 2013. A necklace worn by model Cara Delevingne days prior was included in the stolen goods, with an estimated value of over $88 million. Crime: Borrowing methodology from SpecOps, speed, surprise, and violence of action are the trademarks of a Pink Panther heist. At the right moment, a team member draws a concealed pistol and hammer, quickly directing the staff onto the ground and often using flex ties to restrain them. The perpetrator then proceeds to smash the glass cases and grab whatever is readily available. Another member remains at the front of the store to prop open the door and look out for a law enforcement response. Despite the brute force technique, store staff are rarely harmed, demonstrating a certain level of discipline and limiting lengthy sentencing when caught and arrested. An Alleged Pink Panther heist in Milan, Italy. Sales associates are flex-tied on the floor, a common tactic used by SOF and law enforcement. Escape: According to interviews with investigators and members of the group, the creativity and thought placed on escape and evasion is one facet of the heist that sets the Panthers apart from other networks. The Panthers reportedly select targets based on the ease of escape, exploiting access to thoroughfares and narrow alleyways to negate law enforcement pursuit.  The teams often hand off the stolen goods to an awaiting member on a motorbike. The team then disperses using Vespa scooters, simple pedal bikes, luxury sports cars, and even a Hollywood-style speed boat escape from a coastal town in France. According to interviews, the goal is to depart the country within two hours. Diamond Quarter Antwerp, Belgium. (Photo Credit: Wiki Commons) Exploitation & Money Laundering: According to several accounts, the stolen items are brought back to the Balkans and then slowly couriered back into Europe to be sold on the black market. The Diamond District in Antwerp, Belgium, is the most common destination due to the proximity and large volume of diamonds passing through the city, at times up to 80% of all diamonds in the world.  According to an interview with one of the black market dealers in the documentary Smash & Grab, the Panthers net 20-30% of the value of the goods. For additional information, see our previous Dispatch article, Watches as Tools of Money Laundering and Illicit Finance. Cash, diamonds, and watches seized from the Pink Panthers. Law Enforcement Efforts: The advanced tradecraft has baffled law enforcement agencies for decades and complicated efforts to prosecute the group. While several high-profile arrests have occurred, the structure of the Pink Panthers as a “network of teams” with no clear hierarchy makes dismantling the network difficult. Unlike the mafia or a cartel, there is no known boss or organizational chart, making it difficult to “cut off the head of the snake.” In fact, many participants may not even know they are working for the Pink Panthers but are instead loosely affiliated. When arrested, the group members operate under a code of silence or loyalty to the oath of Omertà. Vladimir Lekic was arrested and sentenced to eight years for his participation in a 2003 robbery in Frankfurt, Germany of $2.5M in watches and jewelry. The Future Of The Pink Panthers Large-scale heists attributed to the Pink Panthers have declined over the previous decade, with over 50 high-profile arrests throughout Europe and the Middle East. To gain entry to the European Union, Montenegro and other Balkan countries have reportedly cracked down on the Pink Panthers and increased cooperation with INTERPOL and other European law enforcement agencies. But the group has not disappeared and periodic heists continue, although some appear to be copycat-style attacks.  While it is tempting to romanticize the Pink Panthers and give in to the narrative that they are robbing from the rich to give to the poor, the reality is international organized crime is a dirty business and it is impossible to separate jewelry heists from murder and narcotics and sex trafficking. That said, we believe it is important to spend time studying the darker sides of horology and the role timepieces and other jewelry play in illicit markets.   Whether it’s George Clooney and Matt Damon in Ocean’s Eleven, Marky Mark and Charlize in The Italian Job, or the overly-complicated exploits of Arsène Lupin, every grown man fantasizes at one time or another about being an international criminal mastermind, a “gentleman thief” with equal parts panache and cunning. For the Pink Panthers, these Hollywood-style heists are a reality but come at a cost, forcing members to live in the shadows as fugitives, ever watchful of the prying eyes of international law enforcement.  If you enjoyed this article, please consider signing up for our weekly free newsletter for further updates HERE. Read Next: Criminal Rolex Gangs and Traveling with Watches, Part I This newsletter has been reviewed by the CIA’s Prepublication Classification Review Board to prevent the disclosure of classified information.

“Terrific” Trump Watches, Rolex Submariner Secrets, Shark Tank Tudors, & More Watch-Related Crime By Benjamin Lowry Last month, we tested a new Dispatch format offering a brief overview of notable watch industry news as well as a discussion of current events either directly or tangentially related to our community. Given the positive feedback on our first run, each month I will provide a brief overview of watch-related news and current events pertaining to our community, all paired with our commentary. As a disclaimer, our monthly Watch Industry SITREP (Situation Report) will never include vapid reporting about which Patek Philippe model Zac Efron pairs with his chiseled abs or what brands have paid to be included in this year’s Fashion Week. Most celebrity endorsements are sponsored anyway, and we frankly don’t care (unless it’s Daniel Craig). To quote Thomas Jefferson, “Whenever the people are well-informed, they can be trusted with their own government.” While that is probably overstating the value of this watch and espionage-oriented platform, suffice it to say that knowledge is power and you don’t want to be caught sleeping on the big news at your next local watch meetup. That said, here are some notable watch industry events from this past month coupled with our commentary, starting with the recent unveiling of 45th President Donald J Trump’s very own collection of “luxury” watches. “That’s A Lot Of Diamonds. I Love Gold, I Love Diamonds” - Donald Trump Watches If you like gold and diamonds, which Trump says “everyone does”, the Victory Tourbillon could be for you. Bottom line up front, W.O.E. is an apolitical platform, but now and then, political figures cross over into our horological world and—as is the case here—require closer examination. Yesterday, Donald J. Trump revealed a new collection of watches headlined by a solid gold “Victory Tourbillon” that will set you back a cool $100k. If that’s out of your price range, there’s also the “Fighter”, sometimes also called the “Fight Fight Fight”, a dive-inspired model that presents a more reasonable $500 price point while still being equipped with an automatic Seiko movement. But as silly as they are, the watches, which are pre-order only for now, are not the news here. As always, Trump himself is the hook. Trump’s “Fighter” model will set you back a cool $499. In what feels almost like a parody or an AI deep fake, the website, GetTrumpWatches, is led by an embedded video that is the stuff of dreams. In the video, Trump introduces himself as your favorite president, proclaims that he is doing “quite a number with watches”, and that, “the quality to me is very important”. Describing the Victory Tourbillon by saying “This isn’t just any watch, it’s one of the best watches made” before launching into the number of grams of gold and the number of diamonds used in the Victory’s eye-watering six-figure design. No matter where you stand politically, watch enthusiasts must unite to enjoy this incredible minute or so of content. If you thought the front of the “Fight Fight Fight” was amazing, the back is even more terrific, though it does say the watch is rated to 200 meters where the specs indicate 100 meters. I digress. Further, the watches do not appear to be making America great again, with the FAQ section indicating the watches are made from “premium, Swiss-Made materials”, whatever that means, and saying proceeds from the watches do not support the former president’s campaign. Instead, the watches—whose country of origin is unclear—are a product of a licensing deal with TheBestWatchesonEarth LLC. With watch-specific and mainstream media eating these watches up—ourselves included—it’s difficult to fault Trump’s ability to remain at the forefront of the public eye. NFL Player Shot But Survives Attempted Rolex Robbery In San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Rocky Pearsall after being shot in an attempted Rolex robbery in San Francisco. In our last SITREP, we discussed watch-related crime including a still-at-large NYC man who placed victims in chokeholds before relieving them of their watches. It gets worse. Days later, on August 31st, San Francisco 49ers rookie Ricky Pearsall was shot in an attempted robbery of his Rolex on the streets of the troubled city that is San Francisco in 2024. According to local news, a teenager spotted the Rolex on the 6’1” 192-pound first-round draft pick, brandished a firearm, and demanded the watch. A struggle ensued in which both Pearsall and his assailant were both shot, but the wide receiver kept his watch, which appears to be a Rolex Datejust, proudly wearing it on the sidelines only two weeks later. Pearshall wearing his nearly-stolen Rolex Datejust on the sidelines only a couple of weeks after the attempted robbery. At W.O.E., we shy away from telling people how to live their lives but have discussed how to safely travel with a watch in great detail (read HERE). Your experience may vary, but suffice to say SF is not the place for flexing your luxury watch collection. Hammer-Wielding Smash & Grab At Pentagon City Mall Broken glass litters the scene around the Pentagon City Mall Tourneau | Bucherer. In further crime news, a Tourneau | Bucherer boutique close by the Pentagon was the subject of a smash-and-grab robbery back on September 1st, when three teens allegedly used hammers to smash into display cases inside the watch boutique. According to police, the sound of the breaking windows was enough to make multiple eyewitnesses report a shooting had taken place, leading to a full lockdown of the shopping center for about an hour. Whether specifically targeting watches or other industry pillars including Louis Vuitton, the luxury industry has been plagued by similar robberies in recent years.  Tourneau, which dates back to 1900, was acquired by Bucherer, one of Europe’s largest watch retailers, in 2018. In some of the most surprising watch news in years, Rolex SA then purchased Bucherer in 2023, presumably to have greater control over its supply chain, secondary market, and customer experience. For luxury boutiques, often “protected” by unarmed security professionals unwilling to engage in fisticuffs with hammer-wielding assailants, the smash-and-grab methodology is challenging to counter, with similar robberies targeting watch retailers taking place in Newport Beach, California, Ellis​​ville, Missouri, Washington, D.C., and Concord, North Carolina in the past year. That said, with most of the watches on display being “Exhibition Only,” they will likely be disappointed with the loot. A Rolex Submariner Book Full Of Revelations Long shrouded in secrecy, a new book developed with Rolex shares untold history and details about history’s most popular watch. (Photo Credit: James Rupley/W.O.E.) As one of the world’s most secretive brands, Rolex is not known for sharing, making the recent unveiling of a book entitled Oyster Perpetual Submariner—The Watch That Unlocked The Deep all the more surprising. A co-venture between watch industry historian Nicholas Foulkes and the Crown itself, the book peels back the layers on several aspects that have long been speculated among Rolex enthusiasts in the darkest corners of internet watch fora. (Photo Credit: Hodinkee) First and foremost, and in a move that led to numerous pearl-clutching gasps among Rolex diehards, the brand formally provided production numbers for each and every Rolex Submariner reference ever made. For collectors, this is huge, providing concrete data for any argument about how rare a particular reference is or isn’t. We’ve never seen a move like this from Rolex before, and perhaps the book indicates a changing tide for a luxury icon that is quite possibly as secretive as any respected intelligence agency. Beyond the production numbers, a detailed history is provided for the Sub’s close relationship to the Explorer, former names considered by the Crown before landing on “Submariner” and plenty of other historical gems. The book formally launches in French and English on October 1st and rest assured, we will have more to say about the text in due course. A Custom Tudor Black Bay 925 For The Shark Tank Cast Known for wearing red straps with the watches in his luxurious and ostentatious collection, Kevin O’Leary is the resident watch enthusiast on Shark Tank, the popular entrepreneurial reality show that just wrapped shooting for its sixteenth season. To celebrate the 24 team members who have been with the show since the pilot, O’Leary purchased 24 of a custom version of the silver Black Bay 925 with a Shark Tank logo on the dial as well as the name of the recipient and “One great idea can change your life forever” engraved on the exhibition caseback.  Within the watch collecting hobby, so-called “unit watches” are one of our favorite aspects, with Tudors Of Espionage (T.O.E.) playing a not insignificant role in our admiration for these customized timepieces. That said, these particular iterations come off more than a little bit corny. Further, the accompanying attempt at virality—a short video entitled Gifting 24 Custom Shark TankTudor Watches—feels like engagement-thirsty virtue signaling of the highest order when the project could have easily been more subtle. We’ll have to see where aftermarket pricing for these goes when someone inevitably sells one… Final Thoughts Whether it’s a solid gold tourbillon from none other than Donald Trump, an NFL player fending off a would-be Rolex thief and getting shot in the process, or the chamber of secrets that is modern Rolex letting just a little bit of light in with a new Submariner book, September didn’t disappoint when it comes to watch-related news. If you guys enjoyed this format and our commentary, please let us know. If you come across great stories as the next month progresses, be sure to share those as well. As a whole, the watch industry is often guilty of taking itself too seriously. With this monthly column, we aim to share some relevant events you might actually care about while also just maybe having a good time in the process. If you enjoyed this article, please consider signing up for our free weekly newsletter for further updates HERE. Read Next: Watch Industry SITREP - August 2024 *As a disclaimer, as Amazon Associates, we earn from qualifying purchases. When you click on links to various books in our articles and make a purchase, this can result in Watches of Espionage earning a commission. If you’re interested in these books and want to make a purchase using these links, we appreciate your support.

Fake Watch Shopping In Istanbul -  A Case Study As a CIA Case Officer operating overseas, you are exposed to the dark side of humanity. It is not a career for the faint-hearted and you learn some things they don’t teach in school. He who fights monsters should see to it that in the process he does not become a monster. And if you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back into you. – Friedrich Nietzsche While the quote is dramatic, there is some merit to it. I didn’t fully realize how abnormal life at CIA was until I separated from the Agency. A byproduct of a career at CIA is a fascination with illicit activity; arms dealers, wildlife trafficking, organized crime, and, now that I am an aspiring watch nerd, counterfeit watches. Fake Watches - A Real-World Case Study Most articles on fake, or “replica” watches cover topics like “How to spot fake Rolex?”, “How much does a fake Rolex cost?”, or “Where to buy a fake Rolex?” These are all interesting topics, but we wanted to go deeper into the counterfeit luxury watch industry.  To do this, I went counterfeit watch shopping in Istanbul, Turkey. There’s nothing like first-hand experience. Counterfeit timepieces are a multi-billion-dollar industry, with shaky estimates indicating between 30 and 50 million fake watches entering the market each year. Contrast that figure with Rolex’s estimated annual production of approximately 1 million pieces per annum; It is reasonable to conclude that there are probably more fake Rolex watches on wrists than there are genuine examples throughout the world. This means that when you see someone wearing a Rolex, statistically speaking, it’s probably fake – a crazy thought. Istanbul - A Counterfeit Watch Mecca During a recent trip to Istanbul, I had a mission: to acquire a “super clone,” or ”superfake” a watch that is nearly indistinguishable from a real thing. Not only are cosmetic traits like the miniature laser-etched Rolex crown on the crystal present but if you take the watch apart, the movement itself is branded Rolex. Even for experienced watchmakers, some of these “super clones” are, all the way down to the movement components, virtually indistinguishable from genuine Rolex. There are differences, of course, but these “super clones” are astonishingly close to the genuine product to the untrained eye. I wanted to see for myself. Rolex crown laser-etched into the crystal, introduced in 2001 to deter counterfeiters. (Photo Credit: Bob’s Watches) Istanbul, Turkey Istanbul's Grand Bazaar is a covered market with over 4,000 shops selling everything from Turkish sweets to clothes and yes, of course, a large selection of counterfeit goods. Entering through the Nuruosmaniye Mosque gate, visitors are overwhelmed with a plethora of shops specifically targeting tourists. The presence of fake watches is immediately apparent and, in contrast to many markets around the world, completely in the open. The watch shopping experience varies depending on the shop but on the higher end is almost like a boutique experience, the only difference being the watches are fake and you can actually buy a “Rolex” rather than be put on a waiting list. They offer tea and coffee, a chair for your bored spouse to sit in, and customer service that exceeds the boutique experience presented by many luxury watchmakers. Interestingly, pictures are generally not discouraged and the sellers are relatively open about the sale of fakes. It isn’t just Rolex, either. Panerai, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, and even counterfeit sketchy Breitlings are readily available, with starting (negotiable) prices of around $450. Most of the watches utilize Miyota movements and are, as you might expect, made in China. Pretty much any reference you can imagine is available including the Le Mans Daytona and Titanium Yachtmaster. 2024 Watches and Wonders releases? No worries, they should be available soon. What Is A “Fake” Rolex?  It is important to understand what a fake Rolex is. We have identified three categories of counterfeit Rolex watches to be aware of. Cheap Or Tourist Fakes: These cost somewhere between $50 and $300 and are generally picked up from street vendors in major tourist cities in Europe, South America, the Middle East, and even New York. You used to be able to spot them by their quartz movements which caused the second hand to “tick” instead of sweep, but now they tend to have automatic movements, more accurate details, and better finishing. But, in general, they are still sloppy fakes and you are not fooling anyone who owns a Rolex with this piece unless you are in a dark room. Super Clone or One For One: So-called replica watches, nearly identical to the genuine thing. They can cost over a thousand dollars and rumor has it that even when taken apart, it can be difficult to tell if the watch is genuine or a reproduction. In theory, one could wear a super clone to the local RedBar watch nerd meetup and fool everyone in the room. It’s been rumored that these have even been unknowingly sold by legitimate dealers as well, proving that the only way to know something is real is to buy it from the boutique. Frankenwatches:  A catch-all term used to describe watches that may be made up of parts that have been switched out and/or a real watch with fake parts (replaced bezel, dial, hands, etc…). Some are honest efforts to restore a watch, but more sinister versions are meant to fool prospective buyers. A recent notable example was the “Tropical” Omega Speedmaster Ref. 2915-1 ‘Broad Arrow’ auctioned by Phillips for over $3.4 million. As documented by popular watch blogger Perezcope, the watch itself was a frankenwatch, allegedly cobbled together by insiders with access to the Omega archives.   Tropical” Omega Speedmaster Ref. 2915-1 ‘Broad Arrow’ frankenwatch, sold Phillips for over $3.4 million (Photo Credit: Phillips) Why Are Fake Watches A Problem? At a minimum, fake watches are textbook examples of intellectual property (IP) theft, using the designs and logos that Swiss brands spent millions of dollars developing over decades. Some go as far as to link the sale of counterfeit watches to child labor, sweatshops, and even terrorism, human trafficking, and organized crime. While direct evidence of this is scarce, it is reasonable to assume that a link exists to some extent. That said, the vast majority of the counterfeit industry originates in China and it appears as though the Chinese government at least tacitly supports it and probably has some oversight and regulation. Are Fakes Substitutes For The Real Thing? According to Business Insider, 23.3 million counterfeit watches are circling the US, more than Rolex has sold worldwide in the past 15 years. The logical conclusion is that this hurts Rolex’s bottom line. But are fakes reasonable substitutes? Is Rolex losing potential customers to fake watches? Probably not. The fact is, the type of person that will buy and wear a fake, likely can’t afford the real thing. In other cases, some may buy a fake now and then the real thing as their financial circumstances change. UFC fighter Conor McGregor recently revealed during a GQ Sports interview that he used to wear fake watches to press conferences before he could afford a genuine Rolex. He is now a legitimate customer, owning millions of dollars in Rolex, AP, and Patek. One could argue that in McGregor’s case, the fake Rolex watches served as the “top of the funnel” for Swiss brands. Conor McGregor Wearing a (real?) Rolex Daytona “Eye of the Tiger” Should I Buy A Fake Rolex? We can think of very few legitimate reasons to purchase a fake Rolex, and yes, doing so does ultimately fuel the already insatiable market for these timepieces and potentially provide funding for organized crime syndicates. Further, in some places, it’s illegal to buy and transport fake watches. Our advice is simple, buy the (real) and best watch you can afford. There are plenty of great and legitimate watches on the market that cost less than your iPhone. Real Rolex Sub (Photo Credit: James Rupley) In response to “Trading A Rolex To Get Out Of A Sticky Situation - Myth Or Reality?”, many commenters suggested traveling with a fake Rolex for bartering. The logic may be sound, but if you are really at the point where you have decided to part with a watch worth thousands of dollars, your life is likely on the line and the cost is trivial. Further, whoever you are giving the watch to is presumably in a position of power and likely someone you do not want to piss off should they determine the watch is fake. The potential for this plan to backfire is simply too high. Le Mans Daytona and “Titanium” Yachtmaster - all fakes I have heard of some people with expensive watch collections that have “dummy” displays in their house, the idea being that if someone breaks in to steal their collection, they would take the fake watches without realizing the real collection is hidden in a safe. This is something that could potentially make sense but is not a practice I would advise. If someone goes the distance to specifically target you for your watch collection, they are likely going to be pissed to find out they stole fake watches and may come back for retribution. No watch is worth your life. All that said, I do have a fake Rolex Submariner that I received as a gag gift from a wealthy friend in Dubai. I have never worn it or even taken out the links to make it fit. Who knows, maybe it will come in handy one day. A real Rolex Daytona (Photo Credit: James Rupley) Should I Be Worried About Fake Watches? By some estimates 20-50% of art in museums is fake and even the largest auction houses with significant resources have been duped with fake watches. While the risk of unwittingly buying a modern watch that is fake is real, this is particularly real in the vintage market, where replacement parts and refinishing jobs can result in a “real” watch becoming a frankenwatch. As an individual buyer, you should not be responsible for identifying a fake.  The safest thing to do is to either buy new watches or build a relationship with a seller you not only trust but trust their expertise. The latter is difficult as it can be incredibly difficult to determine which parts are genuine and which are replacements.   Back In Istanbul Despite my best efforts, I was not able to track down a “super clone” in the Grand Bazaar. Many of the vendors claimed to have better quality watches and vigorously sent Whatsapp messages to their colleagues to bring one by, but they never appeared. The fakes in the souk were mediocre at best with loose bezels and crude finishing and claimed Miyota movements. Fun party gags? Maybe, but I didn’t buy one. W.O.E.’s personal fake watch, acquired in Dubai. I did pick up a set of (fake) boxes, papers, and a blank Rolex warranty card to match my gifted counterfeit Rolex. Similar to the watches themselves, the box was crudely crafted and isn't fooling anyone. While I do not advocate for anyone to purchase anything illicit, I did it in the name of science. If you enjoyed this article, please consider signing up for our weekly free newsletter for further updates HERE. Read Next: The W.O.E. Tudor PVD Pelagos FXD

Luxury timepieces are one of the most effective mediums to move illicit funds around the globe and a tool to integrate those ill-gotten gains into the financial system.  Transnational criminal networks, terrorists, narcotraffickers and corrupt politicians have used watches to launder money as a part of global illicit finance. The Weight of a Million Dollars – 22 pounds A million dollars weighs just over 22 lbs.  I learned this during one of my first tours as a CIA Case Officer.  Like any other morning, I mounted my Gary Fisher mountain bike and rode out the gate of our compound for a quick exercise ride in the hills surrounding the African capital where I was working.  This activity was “in pattern,” should I have surveillance, they would note the departure, but it would not warrant further investigation.  A trained eye might have seen that something was different, however. The dead weight of ten thousand $100 bills in my backpack made the bike top-heavy and awkward to ride.  The operation was simple and routine. After a long Surveillance Detection Route (SDR) through the hills and side streets of the third world capital, I worked my way to a predetermined ops site.  The watch on my wrist would have (probably) been a Timex Ironman, my go to Digital Tool Watch (DTW) for exercise over the past two decades.  I would have checked the time before moving into the site, confirming that I would hit the operational window.  In espionage, timing is everything. Right on time. I identified a couple in the alley.  We established bona fides with a verbal parole -- a predetermined phrase and response.  I then handed them the heavy backpack in exchange for a similar one and rode off in the other direction, the entire exchange lasting less than a minute. In tradecraft lingo it was a “BE” (Brief Encounter).  A standard CIA Case Officers EDC, read more HERE Except for the backpack stuffed with cash, it was a routine day for a case officer. Certainly not the stuff of Hollywood but instead a crucial operation for the global network of intelligence collection. Due to compartmentalization, I didn’t know who the individuals were that I handed the backpack to or why they needed the large sum of cash, though I have my suspicions.  They had likely just arrived in the country and could not bring the cash in through customs without drawing scrutiny. Watches as a Currency: One takeaway from this operation is that money is heavy.  It’s inconvenient, bulky and difficult to transport, not to mention having to explain it away if discovered.  This is why many illicit actors, spies and criminal networks rely on expensive but innocuous luxury items to move funds across borders.  Given the significant increase in value of timepieces, watches are a favored currency when it comes to illicit activity.  I easily could have handed off a single watch to transfer that same value to the couple that morning. The value-to-weight ratio of a Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet or other premium brands is exceeded only by precious gems, making it easy to physically transport a watch across international borders. The vast, unregulated, and fragmented gray market makes converting timepieces into cash relatively easy. Unlike vehicles, gold, and diamonds, there is no oversight or registration for timepieces and a million dollar Patek can be worn on your wrist, easily breezing through customs. Lebron James wearing a "Tiffany Blue" Patek Philippe Nautilus Ref. 5711, a watch that has sold for 100 times its original price at $5,350,000 at auction.  Luxury Watches – Money Laundering: The international financial system is heavily regulated and monitored by law enforcement and intelligence services to identify illicit activity. Transactions over $10,000 are automatically flagged and international border law restricts the amount of cash one can bring in/out of a given country undeclared.  By contrast, watches are a perfect medium for exploitation by bad actors.  They are innocuous and liquid, and pawn shops, auction houses and high-end dealers often turn a blind eye to these activities. Every major auction house has been involved in a controversy where profitability triumphed over ethics at some point. This isn’t to say that they’re willfully supporting money laundering, rather that it is simply a frequent occurrence. Eight days after 9/11, CIA officers pick up $3 million cash in three cardboard boxes. This money would enable the Northern Alliance (NA) commanders to pay their troops and convince other tribes to rally to the NA rather than fight them. (Photo Credit: CIA) Moving Illicit Funds - A Case Study Imagine, you need to move $1 million from the United States to Turkey.  The logical choice is a traditional bank transfer, which would require you to deposit it in a financial institution.  This would alert the authorities who would request an explanation for how you came about the funds, for both tax purposes and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) enforcement. Carrying cash would require a 20 pound duffel bag, making hand-carrying it cumbersome and again would cause scrutiny from customs officials, resulting in questions and import tariffs and complications. Additionally, you introduce a major security risk by carrying that much cash around and potentially becoming a target.  Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Officer processes a passenger into the United States at an airport. (DHS Photo by James Tourtellotte) So, what do you do?  You could convert it to diamonds and hide them in a tube of toothpaste (or concealed in your body), but again, if caught, this cannot be explained away.  So, you visit the diamond district in New York, purchase a dozen Rolex and AP watches, each of which could be worth up to $500k per watch.  You use couriers to “smurf” the watches on commercial flights, each one wearing a watch on the wrist and a couple in a carry-on bag.  For the cost of a few round-trip tickets, the watches could be relocated to Istanbul relatively risk-free.  A single (new) Rolex Dayton can have a street value of $30-$50k, vintage significant higher (James Rupley) Once you arrive in Turkey, you find the local watch dealer and offer to sell for cash, or a bank transfer to integrate them into the financial system, the first step of money laundering (placement, layering, integration).  Given the illicit activity, you may lose some money on the sale, but this is simply the cost of integrating illicit funds.  The dealer is happy to purchase them below market value and not ask questions. Well over $100k in Rolex Watches (Photo Credit: Jame Rupley) Hezbollah’s Illicit Finance: In 2015, an investigation by the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) revealed that Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shia terrorist organization, purchased large quantities of watches in Europe, which were then transported by couriers to Lebanon where they were sold for cash.  Hezbollah reportedly purchased €14 million in watches from a single store in Germany, thus evading international monitoring.  (The movement and exchange of expensive goods has long played a role in informal Middle Eastern “Hawala” money transfer networks throughout the globe.) This practice is so common that Dutch law enforcement has urged watch dealers to refrain from cash transactions.  Several high profile arrests of criminal networks in Spain, Netherlands, Romania and Belgium revealed luxury watches as integral to the movement of illegal funds, and closely associated with the recent increase in watch crime in the region. Money Laundering: The 3 Stages of Money Laundering (Image Credit: Alessa) Money Laundering (ML) is the act of integrating illegally acquired cash to legitimate financial institutions with the goal of concealing the illegal origins of those funds.  While this is traditionally associated with criminal networks, in the intelligence world, cash is king and most intelligence services practice some form of benevolent money laundering.  Watches can play a crucial part in each step of the money laundering process. Placement: Step one is introducing illicit gains into the financial system.  In the example above, this can occur with the sale of the watch and the depositing of those funds into a bank account by the purchasing party.  At initial scrutiny, this will appear to be a legitimate transaction. Breaking Bad- money laundering (AMC) Layering:  Step two is the process of moving those same funds through multiple transactions to conceal the origin of the funds.  Once funds are converted, one could use the illicit funds to purchase watches, and then resell them in a manner to distance the original transaction and repeat this process.  The example above of transferring watches overseas could be another example of layering in addition to potential placement.  Integration:  The final last step is returning the funds to the criminal organizations for personal use, thus appearing legitimate.  Embezzlement and Money Laundering- Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro  According to press reporting, in 2022, Former Brazilian President Bolsonaro found himself in hot water for (reportedly) selling a gifted Saudi Rolex and a Patek Philippe watch, netting him $68k.  Bolsonaro used a third party (smurf) to transport the watches to the United States and quickly found a buyer in a relatively obscure Pennsylvania mall. If true, Bolsonaro used the same technique as above to transfer the value from Brazil, convert it into dollars and then (supposedly) repatriate that cash to Brazil.  This is an example of Money Laundering by disguising an unreported diplomatic gift and converting that gift into a usable currency. This is not the first scrutiny of Bolsonaro's gifts from foreign governments, in 2021, a Brazilian government official was reportedly detained at the border with more than $3 million in jewels from Saudi Arabia in a backpack, allegedly gifts for Bolsonaro and his wife.   The world is not all flowers and rainbows and we expect to continue to see the use of luxury timepieces in the global illicit finance network, particularly as prices for these luxury goods remain high. -- If you enjoyed this article, please consider signing up for our weekly free newsletter for further updates HERE.  This Dispatch has been reviewed by the CIA’s Prepublication Classification Review Board to prevent the disclosure of classified information. READ NEXT: CIA Analysis of Foreign Leaders’ Timepieces

In this week's Dispatch, we explore the massive uptick in watch-related crime and offer some tips on how to safely use your tools while traveling. The Risks of Traveling With A Luxury Watch in 2022.