How I Would Steal The Watches & Wonders Releases From Rolex

A Former CIA Case Officer Dissects How To Penetrate Rolex SA

We are now one week out from Watches and Wonders, the annual trade show in Geneva, Switzerland, where many of the premier luxury watch brands debut their latest designs. W&W is a masterclass in marketing, with weeks of blogs and legacy media speculating on the new releases, a dramatic and highly choreographed reveal, followed by groaning and analysis for the weeks to follow. While brands from Patek Philippe and H. Moser & Cie. to IWC Schaffhausen and TAG Heuer are present, at the center of all the attention is one brand: Rolex.

Last week, we discussed the role of private intelligence and this week we want to take it a step further and look at how commercial espionage actually works. Like many of our articles, this is about watches and the watch industry, but it's really about much more than that. Leaning into my training and experience as an intelligence officer, this is how I would penetrate Rolex SA, the most secretive and powerful watch company in the world.

“Leaked” photos of Rolex new releases planned for 2025.

Who Would Want To Know?

The line between Business Intelligence and Corporate Espionage is blurred and often open to interpretation. “Market research,” including hiring third-party “researchers” is generally accepted. But there is a line and to be clear, corporate espionage is not something we support and would never do ourselves, but it does happen. The Swiss watch industry is a prime target, given the money invested in Research and Development over the past century. These are “trade secrets,” and if they are stolen it could result in significant monetary damage to Rolex, or any other company.

Business Intelligence: The process of collecting, analyzing, and presenting business data to support informed decision-making, commonly used in all industries.

Corporate Espionage: The theft of a company's confidential information for financial gain.

Corporate espionage recently made the news when Bernard Squarcini, a former French intel chief, was convicted of using public funds to spy on individuals for LVMH, the world’s largest luxury conglomerate. (Photo Credit: The Guardian)

Controlling over 30% of the Swiss watch market with an estimated 11 billion dollars in annual revenue, Rolex has the biggest target on its back.  Rival brands are the potential beneficiaries of the intellectual property collected from corporate espionage, but also criminal networks and states. The counterfeit watch industry is also a multibillion-dollar industry, with the vast majority of the counterfeit watches originating in China where it appears as though the government at least tacitly supports these criminal endeavors. It’s not a stretch that a nation-state would support espionage against Rolex with the goal of benefiting their industry, this IP theft regularly happens in other sectors.

Is Rolex A Hard Target?

Rolex headquarters in Geneva is known as an impenetrable fortress for watch media. (Photo Credit: Rolex)

In the intelligence community, a “hard target” is a country or organization that is particularly difficult to collect intelligence on due to strong counterintelligence measures, limited access, or high operational security. The intelligence services of Iran, Russia, China, and North Korea are generally considered hard targets but also non-state actors like Hezbollah.

The Swiss watch industry is notoriously secretive, with some making the comparison to CIA and other intelligence agencies. There is some truth to it, it is a closed system, and for good reasons. As the leader in the industry, Rolex has spent billions developing proprietary technology, brand value, and integrating their supply chain.  

In one of the few accounts of visiting all four of the Rolex manufacturing facilities, Hodinkee described some of the security features, including iris scanners for controlled access, large vaults, and the prohibition of cell phones, all features associated with secure government facilities. While I would not go as far as to say it rivals a nation-state in counterintelligence capabilities, from a corporate standpoint it is probably as “hard” as it gets.

Open Source (OSINT)

OSINT: The process of collecting and analyzing publicly available information from various sources to generate insights.

(Photo Credit: Department of Defense)

OSINT is arguably one of the most effective tools in modern intelligence collection and for any collection initiative, it is the first step. Why allocate clandestine resources when something is publicly available?

To a certain extent, watch media already does this. Morgan Stanley and Luxeconsult produce an annual report on the Swiss watch industry with detailed assessments of revenue based on publicly available data. Internet watch sleuths will take it a step further and triage trademarks and patents for hints of what's to come.  

In 2023 Rolex trademarked the “Land-Dweller” and according to our friend and expert watch spotter Nick Gould AKA @niccoloy Rolex filed a patent in 2022 for a red and black ceramic bezel, both of which could indicate future releases.

“Rolex patent filed in 2022, and just published at the end of last month. The Crown finally found a way to do a red and black ceramic bezel. It seems this combination of colours is difficult to achieve.” - Nick Gould AKA @niccoloy on Instagram

While examining trademark data can provide insight and fuel speculation, most still take the “we’ll see” approach as they are far from definitive. But it does provide one thread or hypothesis that other forms of collection can potentially corroborate.

Alternative Data Sets

Open-source collection can go much deeper than trolling government databases. Research firm Bellingcat has made a name for itself by analyzing alternative datasets with an impressive track record at investigating intelligence services, human rights abuses, and the criminal underworld.

Hunting the Hunters: How We Identified Navalny's FSB Stalkers (Photo Credit: Bellingcat)

Rolex is famed for its vertical integration, relying on only a few outside manufacturers, but it is a multinational company, and some components, packaging, and raw materials must be sourced on the open market.  Equally important are the downstream retail operations. Even with the 2023 acquisition of major watch retailer Bucherer, these retailers are largely outside the Rolex umbrella. A deeper dive into these relationships, invoices, and international shipping manifests can further inform the assessment of organizational structure, supply chain, and even future releases.  

While Rolex is believed to have its own foundry, a large shipment of titanium from a broker in South Africa may indicate an expansion of the titanium offering from just the Yacht-Master which was released in 2024.  The same could be said for other raw inputs used for the ceramic bezels or gem-set pieces. While these international shipping manifests are not always easily accessible, with the right know-how and determination, they can often be accessed.

Rolex manufacturing facility in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland. Analyzing the capacity and fullness of parking lots via commercially available satellite imagery can lead to valuable information. Full parking lots on a weekend could indicate an increase in working hours and production schedules. Of note, according to Google Street View, this parking lot has been replaced and covered. (Photo Credit: Google)

Human Intelligence (HUMINT) - Recruiting A Clandestine Source inside Rolex.

Despite all the technical capabilities, having a human source/penetration with direct knowledge of the collection requirements, i.e. the future Rolex models, is the ultimate goal of any intelligence operation. Anyone who works directly for Rolex is a potential target, but finding someone with placement and access who is willing to divulge secrets is crucial. From an offensive intelligence collection perspective, the “insider threat” is arguably the greatest vulnerability.   

“You start working at Rolex and you stay there. It’s a loyalty thing but it’s also an incentive thing. I think they pay very well, great benefits, great perks… This works really well for their secrecy.”  - Acquired Podcast

Little is actually known about the structure and inner workings of Rolex.  There is no public organizational chart and even an informed assessment about who would actually know about the Watches and Wonders releases in advance is informed speculation.  

A watchmaking trainee at Lilitz, a watchmaking school in Pennsylvania that was built and funded by Rolex. (Photo Credit: Rolex Training)

According to the recent Acquired podcast, Rolex has approximately 16,000 employees, with 9,000 of those residing in Switzerland. A LinkedIn query shows 8,388 employees and “associated members” with 4,555 residing in Switzerland.  If you dive deeper and segment the employees, 574 live and work in Biel/Bienne where the cases are manufactured, and you can do the same with the various Rolex entities. The first step is to build an organizational chart to better understand the type of people who work at Rolex. This is your target list.

Rolex employees in Switzerland are broken down by geographic area and education. (Photo Credit: LinkedIn)

The fact that someone is on LinkedIn at a minimum suggests they are comfortable with public association with Rolex and also makes them more likely to engage externally, maybe even open to exploring other job opportunities. Those who work in watchmaking, watch design, research, and development are obvious targets, but also individuals with access to IT infrastructure could prove a windfall.  

Access & Placement

In Human Intelligence (HUMINT) placement and access to information is crucial. In an ideal world, you would recruit someone with direct access to the senior level “plans and intentions,” which in the case of Rolex is the CEO. That said, you really don’t know who has access to what until you start talking to people. While new releases are likely a compartmented group, it has to be in the hundreds to design and manufacture new watches.

“Open To Work” - The Approach

LinkedIn’s “Open To Work” banner is a sign of a potentially exploitable individual within an organization.

Linkedin is a professional networking platform owned by Microsoft and a valuable tool for intelligence services. According to the New York Times, Chinese intelligence services have used this platform to recruit spies abroad, including in the United States.

To expedite the process and remove myself from the operational act, I would hire a recruitment service firm to conduct the initial outreach to Rolex employees, telling them that an unspecified “consultant” is interested in hiring consultants with knowledge of the Swiss watch industry. Those with “Open for Work” on their profile are priority number one, but given the number of employees at Rolex, a broad initial outreach is necessary.  

A recent patent for a Rolex “Alignable Screw Down Crown”. (Photo Credit: Unpolished Watches)

Designers, engineers, and scientists are notoriously naive to their value and often eager to talk about their creations and work. Business types are generally eager for other opportunities and career progression, often tempted by outside employment opportunities. With enough “shots on goal,” statistically some will respond positively.

Any Rolex employee could be a potential point of exploitation, but someone working within a technical or marketing role could be best. (Photo Credit: Rolex Training)

After an initial triage of the resumes received, I would compile them and make an informed assessment of who has access to the information of interest, in this case, the Watches and Wonders releases, and invite them for a remote “interview,” to further assess their access and willingness to disclose sensitive information. Over time, the full-time position would disappear but another opportunity as a “part-time consultant” would appear. The individual could remain at their place of employment, and “consult” on the Swiss watch industry on the side.

The target would then transition to a “source,” and be responsive to tasking, i.e. answering specific questions.

Student Seeding Operation

École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Rolex’s primary source university for new hires. (Photo Credit: EPFL)

The largest cohort of known Rolex employees studied engineering at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, a public research university in Lausanne, Switzerland, followed by the University of Geneva. Depending on the timeline, you could also consider recruiting a student and “feeding them” into Rolex, another method used by Chinese and other intelligence services. This option represents the long game but is also an effective methodology that does not require developing a source who may already have loyalties to the Rolex organization.

Conclusion

Rolex is a sophisticated organization that no doubt spends considerable money on both physical security and counterintelligence procedures. That said, it is a big organization, and every organization is vulnerable to exploitation, with the “insider threat” often being the greatest.

This article is about the Swiss watch industry in particular, we are “watches of espionage” after all, but really, it is about more than that. Any industry that has leaders will be subject to targeting by hostile actors.

This vintage Speedmaster was sold at auction for over $3M after having been faked with insider help and vintage components from Omega’s heritage department. (Photo Credit: Bloomberg)

While this may seem farfetched, there is a precedent for this type of compromise in the Swiss watch industry. In 2021, insiders at Omega allegedly conspired with outsiders to compile a fake Speedmaster using parts from the Omega archives, with the watch ultimately selling for over $3 million at auction.  

While this may come as a surprise to many in the watch community, it is something at least some at Rolex are keenly aware of. A further review of LinkedIn data shows that the Director of Security at Rolex USA is a former FBI Special Agent, and we can assume he has counterparts in Switzerland and around the globe. Hopefully, Rolex leadership is listening to them and not sidelined as paranoid “formers.”  

To be very clear, this is just an intellectual exercise and we do not advocate or condone commercial espionage. We do hope this is a wake-up call to not only watch companies but companies in general.

This article has been reviewed by the CIA's Prepublication Classification Review Board to prevent the disclosure of classified information.

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